Identification of Double Seasonal Autoregressive Models: A Bayesian Approach


In this paper, we present a Bayesian methodology to identify the order of DSAR models. Assuming the model errors are normally distributed and using two priors, i.e. natural conjugate and Jeffreys’ priors, on the model parameters, we derive the joint posterior mass function of the model order in a closed-form. Accordingly, the posterior mass function can be investigated and the best order of DSAR model is chosen as a value with the highest posterior probability for the time series being analyzed.

In Proceedings of the 52nd Annual International Conference of Statistics, Computer Science and Operations Research, ISSR, Cairo University, Egypt
Ayman A. Amin
Associate Professor of Statistics